It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the positive results have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
